Detection and Attribution Publications



  • Po-Chedley, S., J.T. Fasullo, N. Siler, Z.M. Labe, E.A. Barnes, C.J.W. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, 2022: "Internal variability and forcing influence model-satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (45), e2111875118, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2111875118.
  • Wang, Y., J. Mao, F.M. Hoffman, C.J.W. Bonfils, H. Douville, M. Jin, P.E. Thornton, D.M. Ricciuto, X. Shi, H. Chen, S.D. Wullschleger, S. Piao, Y. Dai, 2022: Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture–based droughts, Nature Communications, 13, 6848, doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5.
  • Santer, B. D., S. Po-Chedley, N. Feldl, J.C. Fyfe, Q. Fu, S. Solomon, M. England, K.B. Rodgers, M.F. Stuecker, C. Mears, C. Zou, C.J.W. Bonfils, G. Pallotta, M.D. Zelinka, N. Rosenbloom, J. Edwards, (2022): "Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature," J. Clim., 35(18), 6075-6100, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0766.1.
  • Peace, A.H., B.B.B. Booth, L.A. Regayre, K.S. Carslaw, D.M.H. Sexton, C.J.W. Bonfils, and J.W. Rostron, 2022: "Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts," Earth System Dynamics, 13, 1215–1232, 2022. doi: 10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022.


  • Santer, B. D., S. Po-Chedley., C. Mears, J. C. Fyfe, N. Gillett, Q. Fu, J. F. Painter, S. Solomon, A. K. Steiner, F. J. Wentz, M. D. Zelinka, C.-Z. Zou, 2021: "Using climate model simulations to constrain observations," J. Clim., 34, 6281 – 6301, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0768.1.
  • Po-Chedley, S., B. D. Santer, S. Fueglistaler, M. D. Zelinka, P. J. Cameron-Smith, J. F. Painter, Q. Fu, 2021: "Natural variability contributes to model-satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (13) e2020962118, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2020962118.


  • Bonfils, C., B.D. Santer, J. Fyfe, K. Marvel, T. Phillips, and S. Zimmerman, 2020: Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall, and continental aridity. Nature Climate Change (in press).
  • Pallotta, G., and B.D. Santer, 2020: Multi-frequency analysis of simulated versus observed variability in tropospheric temperature. Journal of Climate (under review).
  • Steiner, A.K., F. Ladstädter, W.J. Randel, A.C. Maycock, Q. Fu, C. Claud, H. Gleisner, L. Haimberger; S.-P. Ho, P. Keckhut, T. Leblanc, C. Mears, L.M. Polvani, B.D. Santer, T. Schmidt, V. Sofieva, R. Wing, and C.-Z. Zou, 2020: Observed temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere from 1979 to 2018. Journal of Climate (under review).
  • Pendergrass, A.G., M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, A. AghaKouchak, C.J.W. Bonfils, A.J.E. Gallant, M. Hoerling, D. Hoffmann, L. Kaatz, F. Lehner, D. Llewellyn, P. Mote, R.B. Neale, J.T. Overpeck, A. Sheffield, K. Stahl, M. Svoboda, M.C. Wheeler, A.W. Wood, C.A. Woodhouse, 2020: Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Nat. Clim. Chang., 10, 191–199. 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0.
  • K Marvel, K., M. Biasutti, C. Bonfils, 2020: Fingerprints of External Forcings on Sahel Rainfall: Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and Model-Observation Discrepancies. Environ. Res. Lett., 10.1088/1748-9326/ab858e.


  • Po-Chedley, S., M.D. Zelinka, N. Jeevanjee, T.J. Thorsen, and B.D. Santer, 2019: Climatology explains intermodel spread in upper tropospheric cloud and relative humidity response to greenhouse warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, 13399-13409. doi: 10.1029/2019GL084786.
  • Santer, B.D., J.C. Fyfe, S. Solomon, J.F. Painter, C. Bonfils, G. Pallotta, and M.D. Zelinka, 2019: Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 19821-19827. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1904586116.
  • Santer, B.D., C. Bonfils, Q. Fu, J.C. Fyfe, G.C. Hegerl, C. Mears, J.F. Painter, S. Po-Chedley, F.J. Wentz, M.D. Zelinka, and C.-Z. Zou, 2019: Celebrating the anniversary of three key events in climate. Nature Climate Change, 9, 180-182. 10.1038/s41558-019-0424-x.
  • Marvel, K., B.I. Cook, C. Bonfils, P.J. Durack, J.E. Smerdon, A. Park Williams, 2019: Twentieth century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8.
  • Eyring, V., P.M. Cox, G.M. Flato, P.J. Gleckler, G. Abramowitz, P. Caldwell, W.D. Collins, B.K. Gier, A.D. Hall, F.M. Hoffman, G.C. Hurtt, A. Jahn, C.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, J. Krasting, L. Kwiatkowski, R. Lorenz, E. Maloney, G.A. Meehl, A. Pendergrass, R. Pincus, A.C. Ruane, J.L. Russell, B. Sanderson, B.D. Santer, S.C. Sherwood, I.R. Simpson, R.J. Stouffer, and M.S. Williamson, 2019: Lifting climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, 9, 102-110. doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y.


  • Anderson, G.J., D.D. Lucas, and C. Bonfils, 2018: Uncertainty analysis of simulations of the turn‐of‐the‐century drought in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 13,219–13,237. 10.1029/2017JD027824.
  • Phillips, T.J., C.J.W. Bonfils, and C. Zhang, 2018: Model consensus projections of U.S. regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming, ERL, 14 (1), 014005, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d.
  • Lee J., Sperber K.R., Gleckler P.J., Bonfils C., and Taylor K.E., 2018: Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability, Clim. Dyn., 10.1007/s00382-018-4355-4.
  • Po-Chedley, S., C. Proistosescu, K.C. Armour, and B.D. Santer, 2018: Climate constraint reflects forced signal. Nature, 563 (7729), E6–E9. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0640-y.
  • Po-Chedley, S., K.C. Armour, C.M. Bitz, M.D. Zelinka, B.D. Santer, and Q. Fu, 2018: Sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks. Journal of Climate, 8, 3187-3206, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1.
  • Santer, B.D., S. Po-Chedley, M.D. Zelinka, I. Cvijanovic, C. Bonfils, P.J. Durack, Q. Fu, J. Kiehl, C. Mears, J. Painter, G. Pallotta, S. Solomon, F.J. Wentz, and C.-Z. Zou, 2018: Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature. Science, 361, eaas8806, doi: 10.1126/science.aas8806.
  • Bandoro, J., S. Solomon, B.D. Santer, D. Kinnison, and M. Mills, 2018: Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon global stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18, 143-166, 10.5194/acp-18-143-2018.


  • Solomon, S., D. Ivy, M. Gupta, J. Bandoro, B.D. Santer, Q. Fu, P. Lin, R.R. Garcia, D. Kinnison, and M. Mills, 2017: Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in late 20th versus early 21st centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research, 122, 8940-8950, doi: 10.1002/2017JD026719.
  • Santer, B.D., J.C. Fyfe, G. Pallotta, G.M. Flato, G.A. Meehl, M.H. England, E. Hawkins, M.E. Mann, J.F. Painter, C. Bonfils, I. Cvijanovic, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, C.-Z. Zou, 2017c: Causes of differences between model and satellite tropospheric warming rates. Nature Geoscience, 10, 478-485, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2973.
  • Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, F.J. Wentz, Q. Fu, S. Po-Chedley, C. Mears, J.F. Painter, and C. Bonfils, 2017b: Tropospheric warming over the past two decades. Scientific Reports, 7, 2336, doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02520-7.
  • Marvel K., M. Biasutti, C. Bonfils, K.E. Taylor, 2017: Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle, J. Clim., 30, 4983-4995, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1.
  • Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, G. Pallotta, C. Mears, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, F.J. Wentz, C.-Z. Zou, J.F. Painter, I. Cvijanovic, and C. Bonfils, 2017a: Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data. Journal of Climate, 30, 373-392, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0333.1.
  • Fyfe, J.C., C. Derksen, L. Mudryk, G.M. Flato, B.D. Santer, N.C. Swart, N.P. Molotch, X. Zhang, H. Wan, V.K. Arora, J. Scinocca, and Y. Jiao, 2017: Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States. Nature Communications, 8, 14996, doi: 10.1038/ncomms14996.
  • Cvijanovic, I., B.D. Santer, C. Bonfils, D.D. Lucas, J.C.H. Chiang, and S. Zimmerman, 2017: Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall. Nature Communications, 8, 1947, doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4.
  • Bonfils, C., G. Anderson, B.D. Santer, T.J. Phillips, K.E. Taylor, M. Cuntz, M. Zelinka, K. Marvel, B.I. Cook, I. Cvijanovic, and P.J. Durack, 2017: Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity. Journal of Climate, 30, 6883-6904, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1.


  • Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, D.A. Ridley, J.C. Fyfe, F. Beltran, C. Bonfils, J.F. Painter, and M.D. Zelinka, 2016: Volcanic effects on climate. Nature Climate Change, 6, 3-4 10.1038/nclimate2859.
  • Meehl, G.A., A. Hu, B.D. Santer, and S.-P. Xie, 2016: Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation contributions to multi-decadal variability of 20th century globally averaged surface temperatures. Nature Climate Change, 6, 1005-1008 10.1038/nclimate3107.
  • Gillett, N.P., H. Shiogama, B. Funke, G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, K. Matthes, B.D. Santer, D. Stone, and C. Tebaldi, 2016: The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3685-3697 10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016.
  • Fyfe, J.C., G.A. Meehl, M.H. England, M.E. Mann, B.D. Santer, G.M. Flato, E. Hawkins, N.P. Gillett, S.-P. Xie, Y. Kosaka, and N.C. Swart, 2016: Making sense of the early 2000s global warming slowdown. Nature Climate Change, 6, 224-228 10.1038/nclimate2938.
  • Clark, P.U., J.D. Shakun, S.A. Marcott, A.C. Mix, M. Eby, S. Kulp, A. Levermann, G.A. Milne, P.L. Pfister, B.D. Santer, D.P. Schrag, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, B.H. Strauss, A.J. Weaver, R. Winkelmann, D. Archer, E. Bard, A. Goldner, K. Lambeck, R.T. Pierrehumbert, and G.-K. Plattner, 2016: Consequences of 21st century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 6, 360-369, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2923.


  • Santer, B.D., S. Solomon, C. Bonfils, M.D. Zelinka, J.F. Painter, F. Beltran, J.C. Fyfe, G. Johannesson, C. Mears, D.A. Ridley, J.-P. Vernier, and F.J. Wentz, 2015: Observed multi-variable climate signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 500-509, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062366.
  • Phillips T.J., C. Bonfils, 2015: Köppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 064005, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064005.
  • Marvel K., G.A. Schmidt, D. Shindell, C. Bonfils, A.N. LeGrande, L. Nazarenko, K. Tsigaridis, 2015: Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models? Environmental Research Letters, 10, 104010, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104010.
  • Marvel, K., M.D. Zelinka, S.A. Klein, C. Bonfils, P. Caldwell, C. Doutriaux, B.D. Santer, and K.E. Taylor, 2015: External influences on modeled and observed cloud trends. Journal of Climate, 28, 4820–4840, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00734.1.
  • Bonfils, C., B.D. Santer, T.J. Phillips, K. Marvel, L.R. Leung, C. Doutriaux, and A. Capotondi, 2015: Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate, Journal of Climate, 28, 9997-10013, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0341.1.


  • Wuebbles, D., G.A. Meehl, K. Hayhoe, T.R. Karl, K. Kunkel, B.D. Santer, M. Wehner, B. Colle, E.M. Fischer, R. Fu, A. Goodman, E. Janssen, V. Kharin, H. Lee, W. Li, L.N. Long, S. Olsen, Z. Pan, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, and L. Sun, 2014: CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 571-583, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1.
  • UK Royal Society and US National Academy of Sciences, 2014: Climate Change Evidence and Causes. B.D. Santer was a member of the 12-person primary writing team. The full report is available at: here.
  • Santer, B.D., C. Bonfils, J. Painter, M. Zelinka, C. Mears, S. Solomon, G.A. Schmidt, J.C. Fyfe, J.N.S. Cole, L. Nazarenko, K.E. Taylor, and F.J. Wentz, 2014: Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geoscience, 7, 185-189, doi: 10.1038/NGEO2098.
  • Ridley, D.A., S. Solomon, J.E. Barnes, V.D. Burlakov, T. Deshler, S.I. Dolgii, A.B. Herber, T. Nagai, R.R. Neely III, A.V. Nevzorov, C. Ritter, T. Sakai, B.D. Santer, M. Sato, A. Schmidt, O. Uchino, J.-P. Vernier, 2014: Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 7763-7769, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061541.
  • Hartmann, D.L. et al., 2014: Observations: Atmosphere and surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis., edited by T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M.M.B. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 159-254.
  • Flato, G., et al., 2014: Evaluation of climate models. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis., edited by T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M.M.B. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 741-866.
  • Caldwell, P., C.S. Bretherton, M. Zelinka, S.A. Klein, B.D. Santer, and B. Sanderson, 2014: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 1803-1808, doi: 10.1002/2014GL059205.
  • Bandoro, J., S. Solomon, A. Donohoe, D.W.J. Thompson, and B.D. Santer, 2014: Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on Southern Hemispheric summer climate change. Journal of Climate, 27, 6245-6264, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00698.1.


  • Wigley, T.M.L., and B.D. Santer, 2013: A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century warming. Climate Dynamics, 40, 1087-1102, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1585-8.
  • Marvel K., C. Bonfils, 2013: Identifying external influences on global precipitation, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 110: 19301-19306, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1314382110.
  • Santer, B.D., J. Painter, C. Bonfils, C. Mears, S. Solomon, T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, G.A. Schmidt, C. Doutriaux, N.P. Gillett, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, and F.J. Wentz, 2013b: Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 17235-17240, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1305332110.
  • Santer, B.D., J.F. Painter, C.A. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, J.M. Arblaster, P.J. Cameron-Smith, N.P. Gillett, P.J. Gleckler, J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, S. Solomon, P.A. Stott, K.E. Taylor, L. Terray, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner, F.J. Wentz, T.M.L. Wigley, L.J. Wilcox, and C.-Z. Zou, 2013a: Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 26-33, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210514109.


  • Bonfils C., T.J. Phillips, D.M. Lawrence, P. Cameron-Smith, W.J. Riley, Z.M. Subin, 2012: On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 015503, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015503.
  • Subin Z., L. Murphy, F. Li, C. Bonfils, and W. Riley, 2012: Boreal Lakes Moderate Seasonal and Diurnal Temperature Variation and Perturb Atmospheric Circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), Tellus-A, 64, 15635, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.15639.
  • Pierce, D.W., P.J. Gleckler, T.P. Barnett, B.D. Santer, and P. Durack, 2012: The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean’s salinity and temperature fields. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L21704, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053389.
  • Gleckler, P.J., B.D. Santer, C.M. Domingues, D.W. Pierce, T.P. Barnett, J.A. Church, K.E. Taylor, K.M. AchutaRao, T.P. Boyer, M. Ishii, and P.M. Caldwell, 2012: Robust evidence of human-induced global ocean warming on multi-decadal time scales. Nature Climate Change, 2, 524-529, doi: