Identifying Robust Cloud Feedbacks in Observations and Models

Research Highlights

2024

• Chao, L.‐W., M. D. Zelinka, and A. E. Dessler, 2024: Evaluating Cloud Feedback Components in Observations and Their Representation in Climate Models

2023

• Bonan, D., N. Feldl, M. Zelinka, and L. Hahn, 2023: Contributions to Regional Precipitation Change and its Polar-Amplified Pattern Under Warming

• Cropper, S., C. Thackeray, and J. Emile-Geay, 2023: Revisiting a Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From a Last Millennium Perspective

• Myers, T. A., M. D. Zelinka, and S. A. Klein, 2023: Observational Constraints on the Cloud Feedback Pattern Effect

• Rugenstein, M., M. D. Zelinka, K. B. Karnauskas, P. Ceppi, and T. Andrews, 2023: Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity

• Samset, B. H., C. Zhou, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. T. Lund, J. Marotzke, and M. D. Zelinka, 2023: Steady Global Surface Warming Through 2022, After a Recent Step Up in Warming Rate

• Zelinka, M., C. J. Smith, Y. Qin, and K. Taylor, 2023: Comparison of Methods to Estimate Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcings in Climate Models

• Zhou, C., M. Wang, M. D. Zelinka, Y. Liu, Y. Dong, and K. C. Armour, 2023: Explaining Forcing Efficacy With Pattern Effect And State Dependence

2022

• Chen, D., J. Norris, C. W. Thackeray, and A. Hall, 2022: Increasing Volatility of Precipitation Around the Globe

• Golaz, J.‐C., et al. including Y. Qin and P.-L. Ma, 2022: DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Version 2

• Norris, J., D. Chen, A. Hall, and C. W. Thackeray, 2022: Mechanisms of Global Drought Intensification in the 21st Century

• Norris, J., A. Hall, C. W. Thackeray, D. Chen, and G. D. Madakumbura, 2022: El Niño and La Niña Events in Central Pacific are a Good Proxy for Future Global Precipitation Increase

• Qin, Y., M. D. Zelinka, and S. A. Klein, 2022: Estimate Coupled Cloud Feedbacks from Inexpensive Short-Term Atmosphere-Only Simulations

• Samset, B. H., C. Zhou, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. T. Lund, J. Marotzke, and M. D. Zelinka, 2022: Speeding up Detection of Climate Response to Emission Reductions

• Thackeray, C. W., A. Hall, J. Norris, and D. Chen, 2022: Constraining The Increased Frequency Of Global Precipitation Extremes Under Warming

• Zelinka, M. D., S. A. Klein, Y. Qin, and T. A. Myers, 2022: Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment

• Zelinka, M. D., I. Tan, L. Oreopoulos, G. Tselioudis, 2022: Detailing Cloud Property Feedbacks with a Regime-Based Decomposition

2021

• Chen, D., J. Norris, N. Goldenson, C. Thackeray, and A. Hall, 2021: A distinct atmospheric mode for California precipitation

• Hahn, L., K. Armour, M. D. Zelinka, C. Bitz, and A. Donohoe, 2021: Causes of Polar Amplification in Earth System Models

• Myers, T. A., R. C. Scott, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, J. R. Norris, and P. M. Caldwell, 2021: Observational Constraints on Low Cloud Feedback Reduce Uncertainty of Climate Sensitivity

• Norris, J., A. Hall, J. D. Neelin, C. W. Thackeray, & D. Chen, 2021: Climate Models Simulate Extreme Precipitation With Sharply Contrasting Physical Mechanisms

• Norris, J, A Hall, D Chen, C Thackeray, and G Madakumbura, 2021: Climate Models Underestimate Diversity of Synoptic Conditions Associated With Extreme Precipitation Over California

• Pihl, E., et al. including M. D. Zelinka, 2021: New Insights in Climate Science in 2020

• Thackeray, C. W., A. Hall, M. D. Zelinka, and C. G. Fletcher, 2021: Assessing Prior Emergent Constraints on Surface Albedo Feedback in the Latest Earth System Models

• Williamson, M. S., C. W. Thackeray, P. M. Cox, A. Hall, C. Huntingford, and F. J. Nijsse, 2021: Emergent Constraints on Climate Sensitivities

• Zhou, C., M. D. Zelinka, A. Dessler, and M. Wang, 2021: Greater Committed Warming After Accounting for the Pattern Effect

2020

• Bretherton, C. and P. Caldwell, 2020: Uncertainty in Future Warming is Reduced by Combining Emergent Constraints

• Dong, Y. K. C. Armour, M. D. Zelinka, C. Proistosescu, D. S. Battisti, C. Zhou, and T. Andrews, 2020: On the Evolution of Climate Feedbacks and Implied Climate Sensitivity Over Time in Earth System Model Simulations

• Scott, R. C., T. A. Myers, J. R. Norris, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, M. Sun, and D. R. Doelling, 2020: Observed Sensitivity of Low Cloud Radiative Effects to Meteorological Perturbations over the Global Oceans

• Sherwood, S. C., et al. including S. A. Klein and M. D. Zelinka, 2020: International Analysis Narrows Range of Climate’s Sensitivity to CO2

• Zelinka, M. D., T. A. Myers, D. T. McCoy, S. Po-Chedley, P. M. Caldwell, P. Ceppi, S. A. Klein, and K. E. Taylor, 2020: Latest Earth System Models Predict More Global Warming than their Predecessors

• Zhou, C., J. Lu, Y. Hu, and M.D. Zelinka, 2020: Hadley Circulation Changes Depend on Surface Temperature Anomaly Patterns

2019

• Caldwell, P. M., M. D. Zelinka, and S. A. Klein, 2019: Evaluation of Proposed Emergent Constraints on Climate Sensitivity

• Chen, Y., Y. Hwang, M.D. Zelinka, and C. Zhou, 2019: Separating Natural From Externally-Forced Contributions to Observed Cloud Cover Trends

• Hall, A., P. Cox, C. Huntingford, and S. A. Klein, 2019: Progressing Emergent Constraints on Future Climate Change

• Terai, C., Y. Zhang, S. Klein, M. Zelinka, C. Chiu, and Q. Min, 2019: Using Ground-Based Observations to Understand How Low Cloud Reflectivity Responds to Warming

2018

• Qu, X., A. Hall, A. M. DeAngelis, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, H. Su, B. Tian, and C. Zhai, 2018: The Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity are Linked to Shortwave Cloud Feedback

• Zelinka, M., K. Grise, S. Klein, C. Zhou, A. DeAngelis, and M. Christensen, 2018: Drivers of Low Cloud Responses to Poleward Jet Shifts in Observations & Models

2017

• Ceppi, P., F. Brient, M. D. Zelinka, and D. L. Hartmann, 2017: Review of Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models

• DeAngelis, A. M., X. Qu, and A. Hall, 2017: Model Spread in the Fast Response of Global Precipitation

• Klein, S. A., A. Hall, J. R. Norris, and R. Pincus, 2017: Observations Indicate that the Low-Cloud Feedback is Positive

• Zelinka, M. D., Randall, D. A., Webb, M. J., & Klein, S. A., 2017:Clearing Clouds of Uncertainty

• Zhou, C., M. D. Zelinka, and S. A. Klein, 2017: Dependence of Cloud Feedback on the Spatial Pattern of Sea Surface Warming

2016

• Caldwell, P. M., M. D. Zelinka, K. E. Taylor, and K. Marvel, 2016: Why Do Models Disagree?

• Norris, J. R., R. J. Allen, A. T. Evan, M. D. Zelinka, C. W. O’Dell, and S. A. Klein, 2016: Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record

• Terai, C. R., S. A. Klein, M. D. Zelinka, 2016: Will Low-level Clouds Reflect More Sunlight with Warming?

• Zelinka, M. D., C. Zhou, and S. A. Klein, 2016: Insights from a Refined Decomposition of Cloud Feedbacks

• Zhou, C., Zelinka, M. D., and S. A. Klein, 2016: Impact of Decadal Cloud Variations on the Earth’s Energy Budget

2015

• Brient, F., T. Schneider, Z. Tan, S. Bony, X. Qu, and A. Hall, 2015: Higher Climate Sensitivity is Linked to Shallower Tropical Clouds

• DeAngelis, A. M., X. Qu, M. D. Zelinka, and A. Hall, 2015: An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification

• Klein, S. A. and A. Hall, 2015: Do Emergent Constraints Help Predict Future Climate?

• Marvel, K., M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, C. Bonfils, P. M. Caldwell, C. Doutriaux, B. D. Santer, and K. E. Taylor, 2015: Identifying the Human Fingerprint in Observed Cloud Trends

• Qu, X., A. Hall, S. A. Klein and P. M. Caldwell, 2015: The Tropical Inversion will Strengthen in a Warming Climate

• Qu, X., A. Hall, S. A. Klein, and A. M. DeAngelis, 2015: Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

• Zhou, C., M. D. Zelinka, A. Dessler, and S. A. Klein, 2015: The relationship between inter-annual and long-term cloud feedbacks

• Zhou, C., A. E. Dessler, M. D. Zelinka, P. Yang, and T. Wang, 2015: Cirrus Cloud Represent an Important Component of the Cloud Feedback

2014

• Caldwell, P. M., C. S. Bretherton, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, B. D. Santer, & B. M. Sanderson, 2014: Can Data Mining Help Constrain Climate Sensitivity?

• Ceppi, P., M. D. Zelinka, and D. L. Hartmann, 2014: The Role of Clouds in Shifting the Mid-Latitude Jet

• Gordon, N. D. and S. A. Klein, 2014: Evidence that relationship between low-level cloud reflectivity and temperature in the current climate can predict the climate change response

• Johnston, M. S., Eliasson, S., Eriksson, P., Forbes, R. M., Gettelman, A., Raisanen, P., and Zelinka, M. D., 2014: Assessing Model Simulations of Deep Convection: A Novel Compositing Approach

• Zelinka, M. D., T. Andrews, P. M. Forster, and K. E. Taylor, 2014: Detailing Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions using Simple Diagnostics

2013

• Johnston M. S., S. Eliasson, P. Eriksson, R. M. Forbes, K. Wyser, and M. D. Zelinka, 2013: A Novel Technique to Diagnose the Spatio-Temporal Impact of Convective Systems

• Qu, X., A. Hall, S. A. Klein, and P. M. Caldwell, 2013: Marine Low Cloud Cover is Likely to Decrease in the 21st Century

• Grise, K. M., L. M Polvani, G. Tselioudis, Y. Wu, and M. D Zelinka, 2013: Global Warming Caused by the Ozone Hole “Indirect Effect”

• Caldwell, P. M., Y. Zhang and S. A. Klein, 2013: Climate Models Slightly Overestimate Global Warming by Underestimating Future Low Cloudiness

• Klein, S. A., Y. Zhang, M. D. Zelinka, R. N. Pincus, J. Boyle, and P. J. Gleckler, 2013: Climate Model Simulations of Clouds are Improving

• Qu, X. and A. Hall, 2013: The Spread in Snow-Albedo Feedback has not Narrowed in the CMIP5 Ensemble

• Zelinka, M. D., S. A. Klein, K. E. Taylor, T. Andrews, M. J. Webb, J. M. Gregory, and P. M. Forster, 2013: Double Trouble: Cloud Feedbacks and Rapid Adjustments To CO2 are Positive in Current GCMs

2012

• Zelinka, M. D., S. A. Klein, and D. L. Hartmann, 2012a: A Novel Technique to Diagnose and Partition Cloud Feedbacks

• Zelinka, M. D., S. A. Klein, and D. L. Hartmann, 2012b: Illuminating the Processes Contributing to Cloud Feedback