COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND MODELED TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS A FUNCTION OF ALTITUDE


S. Fred Singer
The Science & Environmental Policy Project
4084 University Drive, Suite 101
Fairfax, VA 22030-6812

phone: (703) 934-6940
fax: (703) 352-7535
email: singer@sepp.org

I am interested in comparing observed temperature trends for recent decades, as a function of altitude (1000 to 100 mbar) and latitude, with coupled model simulations of global warming. The simulations should be from one or more representative GCMs, taking whatever CO2 growth rate they might use. Aerosols and ozone depletion need not be included.

Satellite MSU data is a reliable source of observations for the middle and upper troposphere (i.e., away from the lower troposphere where the satellite vs. surface data is a matter of controversy). Models predict that greenhouse warming maximizes at such altitudes. The prediction is connected with water vapor and lapse rate feedback, so this study might investigate zonal mean humidity as well.