PCMDI - IPCC

The ENSEMBLES project, funded through a 5-year contract with the European Commission, aims to provide probabilistic estimates of climatic risk through the use of ensemble integrations of Earth system models. Predictions of natural climate variability and the human impact on climate are inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in the initial conditions of forecasts, the representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. The ENSEMBLES project would like to include the Earth system models that are contributing to the IPCC AR4 in its analyses to give as large an ensemble as possible. The outcomes of the ENSEMBLES project should be a useful addition and contribution to the IPCC process. The ENSEMBLES project has a web site http://www.ensembles-eu.org available for more details.

PI:	Chris Hewitt
Institution:	Met Office Hadley Centre

Abstract:
The ENSEMBLES project, funded through a 5-year contract with the European Commission, aims to provide probabilistic estimates of climatic risk through the use of ensemble integrations of Earth system models. Predictions of natural climate variability and the human impact on climate are inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in the initial conditions of forecasts, the representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. The ENSEMBLES project would like to include the Earth system models that are contributing to the IPCC AR4 in its analyses to give as large an ensemble as possible. The outcomes of the ENSEMBLES project should be a useful addition and contribution to the IPCC process. The ENSEMBLES project has a web site http://www.ensembles-eu.org available for more details.
Publications:

The ENSEMBLES Project